Mukudzokororwa kwayo kubva pakudonha kwe2020, mutengo weBrent wakazara ne $ 70 / bbl. Mitengo yepamusoro muna2021 inoreva kukwira kwemari kwevarimi, pamwe kunyangwe kurekodha-kumisikidza yakakwira. Mune ino nharaunda, wepasi rose zviwanikwa zviwanikwa kubvunza Wood Mackenzie vakati vanoshanda vanofanira kungwarira.

"Nepo mitengo inodarika $ 60 / bbl ichagara iri nani kune vanoshanda kupfuura $ 40 / bbl, haisi nzira yekufamba chete," akadaro Greig Aitken, director neWoodMac yekambani yekuongorora timu. “Kune nyaya dzisingaperi dzemutengo wemitengo nekukanganisa kwemari. Zvakare, kushanduka kwemamiriro ezvinhu kunoita kuti kuronga kuuraya kuome zvakanyanya, kunyanya zvine chekuita nemabvumirano. Uye pane hubris iyo inouya mukusimudzira kwese, apo vanobatana vanotanga kutora zvidzidzo zvakaoma-kudzidza semafungiro echinyakare. Izvi zvinowanzo kutungamira mukuwedzera mari uye kusaita zvakanaka. ”

VaAitken vakati vanoshanda vanofanirwa kuramba vachiita zvine mutsindo. Iwo mapurani ekubudirira pa $ 40 / bbl achiri mapurani ekubudirira kana mitengo iri yakakwira, asi pane zvinoverengeka zvezvinhu vashandisi vanofanirwa kuchengeta mundangariro. Kune imwe, cheni yekutengesa mutengo inflation haidziviriki. Wood Mackenzie akati keteni yekutengesa yakadzurwa, uye kumhanyisa kwebasa kwaizokurumidza kusimbisa misika zvichikonzera kuti mitengo isimuke nekukurumidza.

Kechipiri, mazwi emari anogona kusimba. Kukwira kwemitengo yemafuta ndicho chinhu chakakosha mukukanganisa kwemari. Maitiro akati wandei emari ari kufambira mberi uye akagadzirirwa kusimudzira mugove wehurumende pamitengo yakakwira otomatiki, asi mazhinji haasi.

"Zvinoda 'mugove wakaringana' zvinowedzera kuchema nemitengo yakakwira, uye kusimbisa mitengo hakuzove kwakacherechedzwa," VaAitken vakadaro. "Kunyange makambani emafuta achiramba shanduko kumitemo yezvemari nekutyisidzirwa kwekudyara kushoma uye nemabasa mashoma, izvi zvinogona kushomeka nehurongwa hwekudzora kana kukohwa midziyo mune mamwe matunhu. Mitero yakakwira, mitero mitsva inobatsirwa nemhepo, kunyange mutero wekabhoni unogona kunge uri kumirira mumapapiro. ”

Kukwira kwemitengo kunogona kudzikisira kugadzirisazve portfolio zvakare. Kunyange zvinhu zvakawanda zviri kutengeswa, kunyangwe mune $ 60 / bbl nyika, vatengi vangadai vachiri kushomeka. VaAitken vakati mhinduro dzekushaikwa kwemari hadzina kuchinja. Vanogona-kuva vatengesi vanogona kugamuchira mutengo wemusika, kutengesa zvirinani zvinhu, zvinosanganisira zviitiko muchibvumirano, kana kubatirira.

"Iyo yakakwira mafuta inokwira, iko kwakanyanya kusimbisa kuchinja kwekubatisisa zvinhu," akadaro. “Kutora mutengo wakapararira wemusika yaive sarudzo iri nyore apo mitengo nechivimbo zvaive zvakaderera. Izvo zvinova zvakanyanya kuoma kutengesa midziyo nemutengo wakaderera munzvimbo iri kukwira yemutengo. Zvinhu zviri kuburitsa mari uye vashandisi havana simba rekutengesa nekuda kwekuwedzera kwemari uye nekuchinjika kukuru. "

Nekudaro, zvine hungwaru-kukwidziridzwa mapotifoliyo akakosha. Aitken vakati: “Zvichawedzera kubata mutsetse nemitengo yakakwira. Makambani akataura zvakawanda nezvekuranga, achitarisa kudzikiswa kwezvikwereti uye kuwedzera migove yemugovana. Idzi ndidzo nharo dziri nyore kugadzira kana oiri iri $ 50 / bbl. Kutsunga uku kuchaedzwa nekuwedzera kwemitengo yezvikamu, kuwedzera kugadzirwa kwemari uye kugadzirisa mafungiro kune chikamu chemafuta uye gasi. ”

Kana mitengo ikabata pamusoro pe $ 60 / bbl, maIOCs mazhinji angangodzokera kumashure kunzvimbo dzavo dzemari nekukurumidza kupfuura kana mitengo iri $ 50 / bbl. Izvi zvinopa hukuru hukuru hwekutsvaga mukana mune simba idzva kana kuita decarbonization. Asi izvi zvinogona zvakare kushandiswa pakudzorera zvakare mukukwira kumusoro.

Vanozvimiririra vanogona kuona kukura kuchikurumidza kudzoka kuma ajenda avo: vazhinji veUS vakazvimiririra vane yavo-yekuzvisarudzira yekudyisazve mwero zvipingamupinyi zve 70-80% yekushandisa mari kuyerera. Kugovera matunhu ndicho chakanangwa nemakambani mazhinji ane zvikwereti zvikuru kuUS, asi VaAitken vakati izvi zvichiri kusiya nzvimbo yekukura kwakayerwa mukati mekukwira kwemafashama emari. Zvakare, vashoma vekunze vakazvimiririra vakaita iwo akafanana mhando yekushandura kuzvipira sevakuru. Ivo havana chikonzero chakadai chekuchinja mari kubuda kwemafuta uye gasi.

“Bato iri rinogona kutakurwa zvekare here? Pachinhu chidiki, kutarisisa pakusimba kwaizopa nzira kune hurukuro nezve mutengo wekuwedzera. Dai musika waizotanga mubayiro kukura zvakare, zvinogoneka. "Zvinogona kutora makota akati wandei emibairo yakasimba kuti ibudirire, asi chikamu chemafuta chine nhoroondo yekuve muvengi wayo mukuru," VaAitken vakadaro.


Post nguva: Kubvumbi-23-2021